When considering the best bets for NFL win total predictions, consider that there is a talent imbalance between the two conferences. The top quarterbacks in the AFC are Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers and Herbert. The top five in the NFC are Hurts, Prescott, and arguably Stafford, Carr, and Cousins. From these lists, the AFC clearly has the better QBs and the better teams. Since NFL teams play more games against their own conference, the AFC teams have the more difficult schedules overall. Sharp Football Analysis recently released its strength of schedule rankings for the upcoming season. The seven most difficult schedules were all AFC teams. Five of the six easiest schedules were NFC teams. What is this all leading to? The best full-season plays will be AFC unders, and NFC overs.
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Here are my favorite NFL win total predictions:
Saints over 9.5 wins (+105)
New Orleans is a popular pick to turn it around this season. They only won seven games last season, but upgraded the most important position on the field when they got Derek Carr from the Raiders. The NFC South is awful, out of their six divisional games they should win at least four. The AFC division they face is the AFC South, easily the worst division in the conference. Warren Sharp ranked the Saints as having the easiest schedule in the NFL. The Saints face Bryce Young, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield in Weeks 2 through 4, giving the Saints an easy start to the season. Michael Thomas is set to return to join Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara as top-level weapons for Carr. The Saints will get double-digit wins easily.
Bills under 10.5 wins (+130)
The Bills play road games against the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals and Chargers. The Dolphins and Jets have each made improvements, and are no longer easy wins for Buffalo. The Bills are extremely reliant on Josh Allen, and his running style makes him an injury risk. Allen’s backups are Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley, so Bills fans find themselves praying number 17 can stay healthy. The team is trying to downplay the preseason incidents with Stefon Diggs, but I do not believe everything is right with his relationship with the team or Allen. The Bills have won 10 or more for four straight seasons, but this will be the year they regress.
Rams over 6.5 wins (-105)
The downfall of the Rams has been greatly exaggerated. They won the Super Bowl, then followed it up with a disastrous 5-win season. But this team still has Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, plus Sean McVay didn’t forget how to coach. If this total goes under, that would mean that this core only won 11 out of 34 games in a two-season span. I do not see that happening. This is a great buy-low spot for a team with a few future Hall of Famers.
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Browns under 9.5 wins (-135)
DeShaun Watson hasn’t been a high-level quarterback since 2020, and now he is supposed to bounce back with a ten win season? His last season as a full-time starter only netted four wins, and he will have to prove he hasn’t lost some of his running speed. The AFC North is stacked, the Bengals may be better than ever, the Ravens completely reloaded, and the Steelers are always tough. They start the season off with the Bengals, Steelers, Titans, Ravens and 49ers, if you want the over to hit, they better win at three of those games, which will not happen. Don’t believe the hype. Take the under.
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